How the US can prepare for a two-front war with China and Russia
Introduction
A new report from a bipartisan panel of experts has warned that the United States must prepare for possible simultaneous wars with China and Russia, two authoritarian regimes that pose a threat to the US-led international order and the values it upholds. The report, released on Thursday by the Strategic Posture Commission, a congressionally appointed body, calls for expanding the US conventional forces, strengthening the alliances with allies and partners, and enhancing the nuclear weapons modernization program.
The two-war construct
The report argues that the US must be ready to deter and defeat both China and Russia simultaneously, as they may coordinate their actions in some way to challenge the US and its allies. The report cites the growing tensions with China over Taiwan, the South China Sea, human rights, trade, and technology, as well as the worsening frictions with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, its interference in elections, its cyberattacks, and its use of chemical weapons.
The report warns that the Chinese and Russian threats will become acute in the 2027-2035 timeframe, so decisions need to be made now in order for the nation to be prepared. The report says that the current US national security strategy, which calls for winning one conflict while deterring another, is insufficient and outdated. The report contrasts with President Joe Biden’s position that the current US nuclear arsenal is sufficient to deter the combined forces of Russia and China.
The recommendations
The report makes several recommendations for enhancing the US strategic posture in the face of the Chinese and Russian challenges. Some of the key recommendations are:
Expanding the US conventional forces, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, to increase deterrence and readiness. The report suggests increasing the number of ships, aircraft, missiles, and troops, as well as investing in new technologies such as hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology.
Strengthening the alliances with allies and partners in Europe and Asia, as well as seeking new partnerships with countries such as India and Vietnam. The report urges the US to provide more security assistance, training, exercises, and intelligence sharing with its allies and partners, as well as to support their defense capabilities and sovereignty.
Enhancing the nuclear weapons modernization program, which aims to upgrade all warheads, delivery systems, and infrastructure. The report says that the program, which began in 2010 and was estimated in 2017 to cost $400 billion by 2046, must be fully funded and accelerated. The report also recommends extending the operational lives of ballistic missile submarines and deploying more tactical nuclear weapons in Asia and Europe.
The conclusion
The report concludes that the US must make these investments to maintain its strategic advantage over China and Russia, as well as to preserve its leadership role in the world. The report acknowledges that these investments will require significant resources and political will, but argues that they are necessary for ensuring the security and prosperity of the US and its allies. The report says that failing to act now will result in a more dangerous and unstable world in the future.
FAQ
Q: Why does the US need to prepare for simultaneous wars with China and Russia?
A: The US needs to prepare for simultaneous wars with China and Russia because they are two authoritarian regimes that pose a threat to the US-led international order and the values it upholds. They may coordinate their actions in some way to challenge the US and its allies in different regions of the world.
Q: What are the main recommendations of the report for enhancing the US strategic posture?
A: The main recommendations of the report are to expand the US conventional forces, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, to increase deterrence and readiness; to strengthen the alliances with allies and partners in Europe and Asia, as well as seeking new partnerships with countries such as India and Vietnam; and to enhance the nuclear weapons modernization program, which aims to upgrade all warheads, delivery systems, and infrastructure.
Q: How much will it cost to implement the report’s recommendations?
A: The report does not provide a specific estimate of the cost of implementing its recommendations, but it acknowledges that they will require significant resources and political will. The report says that the current US national security strategy, which calls for winning one conflict while deterring another, is insufficient and outdated. The report contrasts with President Joe Biden’s position that the current US nuclear arsenal is sufficient to deter the combined forces of Russia and China. The report also says that the nuclear weapons modernization program, which began in 2010 and was estimated in 2017 to cost $400 billion by 2046, must be fully funded and accelerated.
